Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to destroy the Kerch Bridge, an important logistic path of Russian forces. Due to its long range this missile, upon deployment, could also present a potential threat to the city of Moscow.

As of Oct. 31, 2023, Germany has committed €17.1 Billion of military support for Ukraine, which made it the second largest donor country after the US. Until this moment, however, Germany hasn't supplied Ukraine with their Taurus missiles despite explicit requests from the Ukrainian government.

  • On 2 January, 2024, the head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann called for the transfer of the Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
  • On 7 January 2024, Markus Söder the Minister-President of Bavaria named Taurus as the only way out for Germany to avoid security problems. Additionally, Joachim Gauck, the former president of Germany accused the federal government of hesitant stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine
  • On 17 January 2024 German Bundestag declined the proposition to supply Taurus missiles for Ukraine (485 vs 178).

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20%
Unlikely

The Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy "hard and deeply buried targets" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may...

Last updated: 2024-05-01
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 102

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