Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.

In the headline question to this series, a global catastrophe is defined as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. On this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe.

By contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on that definition, as it is estimated that it killed between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years, that is between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts20

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1%
Exceptionally unlikely

A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu,...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 20

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