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Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
7%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Wikipedia

In a January 2024 interview, Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:

Altman believes future AI products will need to allow "quite a lot of individual customization" and "that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable," because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.

"If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds," Altman tells Axios. "But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools."

Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, "It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important."

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts51

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Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?
7%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Wikipedia

In a January 2024 interview, Sam Altman talked about...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 51

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