Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?
Question description
Question is largely taken from these two questions about the cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD (alternatively ) and labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD. As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and the latter has a community median of $90.70, hence under those parameters, this question would likely resolve yes, as the latter figure uses more deflated dollars.
Question is a binary that simply asks whether average labor productivity per hour in 2031 would be lower than the costs for sequencing a full human genome in 2031.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 25 |
Capture
Question is largely taken from these two questions about the cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD (alternatively ) and labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD. As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and...
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