Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?
Question description
On October 30, 2023, President Biden implemented an Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (EO 14110). Among other things, this Order requires developers of powerful AI models—those “trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations”—to comply with certain reporting requirements.
As of February 2024, no model exists that meets the Order’s criteria. The largest known model is Gemini Ultra at 9e25 FLOP, according to Epoch. In the last decade, twelve new models have been released which were at the time the largest ever, and of these twelve, ten were released less than a year after the previous largest model (Epoch).
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 60 |
Capture
On October 30, 2023, President Biden implemented an Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence (EO 14110). Among other things, this Order requires developers of powerful AI models—those “trained using a quantity of...
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