Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

Article 5 of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' "collective self defense":

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

Article 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, issued a statement on September 12, 2001 that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was affirmed on October 2, 2001. This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.

Further reading can be found on NATO's website.

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts45

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Resizable preview:
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

Article 5 of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' "collective self defense":

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 45

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