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Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
97%
Virtually certain
Yes

Question description #

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.

The US has been a member of NATO since 1949.

In January 2020, Trump said to Ursula von der Leyen that the US will not help Europe if it was attacked and that it will quit NATO, according to a recent claim by Thierry Breton, a French commissioner who is responsible for the European Union's internal market. Specifically, Trump said:

You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you

By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO

And by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense

No country has ever left NATO, willingly or not, since its inception.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts119

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?
97%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 119

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