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Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
75%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.

The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the electoral college.

In December the electors will cast their votes for the President. In January, Congress counts and certifies these votes to determine who will be elected president. If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes the president will be decided by the United States House of Representatives in a contingent election.

Since the inception of the United States, five elections have resulted in the winner losing the popular vote.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts286

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
75%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The 2024 United States presidential election is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States.

The election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the electoral college.

In...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 286

Embed #

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