Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
25%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilization in the coming centuries.

Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy v1.0 defines a "catastrophic risk" from AI as "for example, thousands of deaths or hundreds of billions of dollars in damage) that is directly caused by an AI model and wouldn’t have occurred without it". In this question, we ask whether Anthropic's "catastrophic risk" threshold will be met within the next eight years.

This question is closely related to this other question but with a much higher threshold.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts48

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25%
Unlikely

Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilization in the coming centuries.

Anthropic's Responsible Scaling Policy v1.0 defines a "catastrophic risk" from AI as "for example, thousands...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48

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