Will a second US state adopt a unicameral legislature before January 1, 2050?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
29%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral legislatures: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and later Vermont. All of them switched to a bicameral system by 1836. Just as in the federal constitution, usually the lower house is elected from even-population districts but the upper house is chosen from fixed districts such as counties.

In 1937, Nebraska became the first state to eliminate its upper chamber and adopt a unicameral legislature.

In 1964, the US Supreme Court issued its ruling in Reynolds v Sims, which ruled that all state legislative districts must be roughly proportional by population. This caused all 49 other states to have two chambers that were both elected from even-population districts.

In recent history there have been other states with unsuccessful campaigns to switch to unicameralism. Governor Jesse Ventura advocated for it in 1999 in Minnesota, but it failed to pass the legislature to be put on the ballot. In 2006 a petition to put unicameralism on the ballot in Michigan failed to get enough signatures to qualify. In 2023, a bill was introduced in Maine to create a bipartisan commission to study a unicameral legislature among other reforms.

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29%
Unlikely

All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 10

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