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Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
55%
About Even
Yes

Question description #

In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a 40-year high. And between trade restrictions and air defense zone incursions, relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure.

As context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts48

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?
55%
About Even
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a 40-year high. And between trade restrictions and air defense zone incursions.),...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 48

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