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Will China have placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
95%
Very likely
Yes

Question description #

In February 2023, China’s Ministry of Commerce used its Unreliable Entities List (UEL) for the first time, placing Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, two aerospace R&D companies with heavy contracting ties to the U.S. military, onto this list as part of the ongoing US-China trade war. The notice issued announced the following measures against these companies/entities (Pan & Tan, 2023):

  • prohibition on import and export activities involving China;<br>
  • prohibition on new investment in China;<br>
  • denial of entry into China of the senior executives of these entities;<br>
  • denial or revocation of Chinese work permits, or right to stay or reside in China granted to the senior executives of these entities; and<br>
  • financial penalty on each of these entities equivalent to two times the value of arms sales made to Taiwan since the date of issuance of the UEL Regulations (i.e., September 19, 2020), payable within 15 days of the announcement, failing which additional penalty may be imposed

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts23

Capture #

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Will China have placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List before 2030?
95%
Very likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In February 2023, China’s Ministry of Commerce used its Unreliable Entities List (UEL) for the first time, placing Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, two aerospace R&D companies with heavy contracting ties to the U.S. military, onto this list as part of...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 23

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