Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
90%
Very likely
Yes

Question description

Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: high frequency trading firms have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like Nubank, which is currently valued over 100B$, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.

Revolut has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut has a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania. However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK; limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as an "e-money institution" in the UK.

Two of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about collapsing all of its share classes into one. However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as September 2023.

Additional resource: From the FT, Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?

What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts76

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Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: high frequency trading firms have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 76

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