Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?

Metaculus
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8%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House.

Congress members may bypass the Speaker's will by filing a discharge petition and bringing the bill from the committee to the floor; however, to succeed, it needs to be signed by the majority of the House members.

Due to the public signing process and the petition requiring signatures of the House majority, they are rarely successful. According to Wikipedia:

Between 1931 and 2003, 563 discharge petitions were filed, of which only 47 obtained the required majority of signatures.

As of 13 March 2024, 10 discharge petitions had been filed at the 118th Congress, none of which had been signed by a House majority (218 votes).

In regard to the overseas aid bill, two discharge petitions: No.9 and No.10 were filed on 12 March 2024.

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8%
Very unlikely

On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House.

Congress members may bypass the Speaker's will by...

Last updated: 2024-05-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 23

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