Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

Metaculus
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3%
Very unlikely
Yes

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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts43

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3%
Very unlikely

Since dropping atomic bombs on Japan in World War II, the U.S. has issued a number of nuclear threats, by some accounts, including against China, Cuba, and Vietnam.


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Last updated: 2024-07-14
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Metaculus
Forecasts: 43

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