Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?
Question description
China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first nuclear test detonation in 1964 (see, e.g., Wikipedia).
It appears that China has only made one nuclear threat in its history, around two decades ago: “In 2005, Chinese major general Zhu Chenghu said that China might retaliate with nuclear weapons if the United States attacked Chinese forces in a conflict over Taiwan” (Wikipedia).
Related questions:
- Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?
- Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
- If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
- If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 49 |
Capture
China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first...
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