Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?

Metaculus
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Yes

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China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first nuclear test detonation in 1964 (see, e.g., Wikipedia).

It appears that China has only made one nuclear threat in its history, around two decades ago: “In 2005, Chinese major general Zhu Chenghu said that China might retaliate with nuclear weapons if the United States attacked Chinese forces in a conflict over Taiwan” (Wikipedia).

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China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
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Metaculus
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