Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the Republic of China (aka Taiwan) controls the islands. The two states remain in a state of tension following the Chinese Civil War. Though there has not been active conflict since 1979, the two parties have not agreed to an armistice or peace treaty.

In May 2020, PRC General Li Zuocheng said: “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.”

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts17

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Resizable preview:
1%
Exceptionally unlikely

The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the Republic of China (aka...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 17

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