The original wager for this question appeared here on July 27, 2023 at 4:1 odds favoring (Metaculus forecaster) Matthew Barnett.

Caplan writes:

Matthew Barnett seems likely to beat me on our current AI bet. Even so, I’m ready to do another bet against him on the same theme. Barnett is so optimistic about AI that he’s predicting a massive increase in Gross World Product.

Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. Source.

Our terms:

If:

By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year

Then:

Bryan pays Matthew the current market value of $2,000 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.

Else:

Matthew pays Bryan the current market value of $500 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.