Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
77%
Likely
Yes

Question description

The original offer to wager appeared here on June 10, 2015 at even odds.

Caplan writes:

Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:

“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their country should not use military force to defend a NATO ally if attacked by Russia,” the Pew Research Center said it found in its survey, which is based on interviews in 10 nations.

There is more here, and so every great moderation must come to an end…

This is also of note:

According to the study, residents of most NATO countries still believe that the United States would come to their defense.

Meanwhile:

Eighty-eight percent of Russians said they had confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing on international affairs…

Solve for the equilibrium, as they like to say. It is much easier to stabilize a conservative power (e.g., the USSR) than a revisionist power (Putin’s Russia).

In contrast, I think (a) a Russian attack on a NATO member is highly unlikely, and (b) would provoke a massive military response by NATO. Even a low-level, unofficial war in Ukraine has cost Russia dearly, and it looks to me like it will slowly become another “frozen conflict” in the Russian sphere of influence. Attacking a NATO member would not be suicide for Putin, but still much too risky for his taste.

[...] I give even odds that Russia attacks zero NATO members for the next 25 years. [...] I’m inclined to say that if the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and Washington Post all have front-page stories saying that 1000 or more Russian troops have entered a specific NATO member, I lose.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts52

Capture

Resizable preview:
77%
Likely

The original offer to wager appeared here on June 10, 2015 at even odds.


Caplan writes:

Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:

“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their...

Last updated: 2024-07-14
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 52

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-21915" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />