The wager for this question appeared here and was made September 12th, 2018 at even odds. This wager was an update on a previous post.

Caplan writes:

Samuel Knoche, a student at Fordham University, has taken me up on an old bet:

I bet at even odds that 10 years from now, the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges will be no more than 10% (not 10 percentage-points!) lower than it is today.

However, we’ve slightly modified the earlier terms.

Since the most recent data is for 2015, we are betting that when the 2025 data comes out, Samuel [Knoche] wins if the fraction of 18-to-24-years-olds enrolled in four-year colleges has fallen more than 10%. I win if it’s fallen less. Since the current rate is 29.9%, he wins if the rate is 26.6% or less. If the data series is discontinued, we call off the bet and I refund his money with 3% annual interest.

NOTE: This question is a resolution-reversed version of a previously opened Metaculus question: Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?