Will Aidan Caplan win his bet that the Supreme Court will not be packed as of July 4, 2028?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
95%
Very likely
Yes

Question description

The original wager for this question appeared here and was made on July 10, 2018 with 7-1 odds favoring Ilya Somin.

Bryan Caplan writes:

Court-packing is back. Or is it? Perhaps cheap talk is merely taking on yet another guise. After an engaging argument on this topic, law professor Ilya Somin has hammered out the following bet with my son, Aidan Caplan. While most observers would take a Somin’s side on credentials alone, bear in mind that Aidan has earned 5’s on both the U.S. History and U.S. Government Advanced Placement tests. Though he just finished 9th-grade, the contest is not as unequal as it seems.

In any case, here are the terms of the bet – written by Ilya, and accepted by Aidan:

To win, I bet, at 7-1 odds favoring me, that the Court will be packed within 10 years. I put up $10 against his $70. I win if by July 4, 2028, the Supreme Court is legally authorized to have 10 or more justices. Otherwise Aidan wins. I agree he wins if it has gone up from 9 to 10 or more between now and 2028, but it has been cut back to 9 by 2028.

Somin adds: “And I actually hope there will NOT be any court-packing in the next 10 years.”

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts22

Capture

Resizable preview:
95%
Very likely

The original wager for this question appeared here and was made on July 10, 2018 with 7-1 odds favoring Ilya Somin.

Bryan Caplan writes:

Court-packing is back. Or is it? Perhaps cheap talk is merely taking on yet another guise. After an...

Last updated: 2024-05-29
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 22

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