Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

The original wager for this question appeared here with an update here.

NOTE: This relevant wager was offered September 24, 2015 at 10:1 odds not favoring Caplan.

Caplan writes:

Last weekend, I got into a Twitter argument with a fellow who claims that Europe’s immigration problem will “inevitably” lead to civil war:

@bryan_caplan As a human nature pessimist, I see ethno-cultural balkanization and civil war as inevitable on current trends.

— Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015

My reaction, as usual, was to propose a bet. And as usual, the person claiming “inevitability” refused to offer me favorable odds. Instead, he asked me to offer him favorable odds!

@bryan_caplan Civil war in multiple countries, within 30 years, tens of thousands killed. 10/1 would be nice.

— Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015

My bets are often of the form, “You’re confident, I’m ignorant, so give me favorable odds and I’ll bet you.” In this instance, however, I don’t plead ignorance. I am confident that civil war won’t happen in Western Europe for any reason whatsoever. So here’s the bet I’m offering:

You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $7x [later updated to 10x]. Germany counts, Turkey doesn’t. Any front page story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall St. Journal stating that a literal civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation ends the bet in my opponents’ favor.