The original wager for this question appeared here and here on June 9-10, 2014 at 3:1 odds favoring Caplan.

Caplan writes:

The Economist confirms that global warming has paused over the last 15 years:

Between 1998 and 2013, the Earth’s surface temperature rose at a rate of 0.04°C a decade, far slower than the 0.18°C increase in the 1990s. Meanwhile, emissions of carbon dioxide (which would be expected to push temperatures up) rose uninterruptedly. This pause in warming has raised doubts in the public mind about climate change.

The rest of the piece discusses explanations for the pause:

A convincing explanation of the pause therefore matters both to a proper understanding of the climate and to the credibility of climate science–and papers published over the past few weeks do their best to provide one. Indeed, they do almost too good a job. If all were correct, the pause would now be explained twice over.

I’m not qualified to evaluate any of this research. As a matter of general epistemic policy, though, I put very little stock in after-the-fact explanations. And that seems to be all the latest research is.

[...]

To repeat, I’m not qualified to debate these experts. But their reaction seems fishy to me, and I am more than qualified to bet against the consensus on the basis of that perceived fishiness. Of course, since the experts are claiming knowledge, and I’m claiming ignorance, the odds should be in my favor. Last week on Twitter, I publicly offered to bet at 2:1 odds that the global warming pause will continue for another 15 years.

Indeed, he offers better terms than I requested: 3:1 odds, and I win if (according to according to ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series) the average global annual land + ocean temperature increase between 2014 and 2028 inclusive is less than or equal to +.05 C.

1. Since we already have some data from 2014, the bet should run from 2015 to 2029.

2. Yoram proposed Wheat and Chessboard stakes, but I prefer to simply bet my nominal $333.33 against his nominal $1000.

3. If ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series stops publishing data during this period, we call the bet off. Alternately, Yoram can propose back-up data sources, and we only call the bet off if they all stop publishing data.