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Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The two noteworthy dips in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now growing anxiety that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on an even greater scale, in everything from art to software engineering. This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.

See also this companion question about employment falling below 30% by 2030.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts34

Capture #

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Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The two noteworthy dips in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now growing anxiety that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on an even greater scale, in everything...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 34

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