Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
3%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description

In recent decades the People's Republic of China has been engaged in a concerted effort to modernize its military, as detailed in this 212-page report issued by the Pentagon to the US Congress. The PRC now has the largest navy by number of ships, the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific region, the largest army by number of soldiers, and is the 2nd largest military spender in the world.

In 1962 and 1979, China engaged in conflicts with India and Vietnam, respectively, that would have caused a Yes resolution for this question.

Prospects for Invading Vietnam

In 2019, Rand Senior Defense Analyst Derek Grossman wrote Vietnam Is the Chinese Military’s Preferred Warm-Up Fight in which he argues that with the worlds attention focused on Taiwan, China’s preferred target might actually be Vietnam. China faced a humiliating defeat to Vietnam in its 1979 invasion, and Vietnam lacks any sort of mutual protection agreement with the United States. So, from a military standpoint, it could be a good proving ground for the PLA. Notably, however, much of the PRC's conflict with Vietnam involves disputed islands, so it might be primarily an air and sea engagement.

Prospects for Invading India

China and India have overlapping claims in their border areas. According to Dr. Srini Sitaraman of the Daniel K. Inouye Center for Asia Pacific Studies on pages 11 and 12 in this PDF of a chapter he wrote in a book about the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, China is the stronger power between it and India, and it is increasingly able to take a hardline position. China defeated India in the Sino-Indian War of 1962, and India as the weaker power is the one seeking to hold onto territory in the present dispute.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts31

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Resizable preview:
3%
Very unlikely

In recent decades the People's Republic of China has been engaged in a concerted effort to modernize its military, as detailed in this 212-page report issued by the Pentagon to the US Congress. The PRC now has the largest navy by number of ships, the...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 31

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