Will the UK or France veto a United Nations Security Council resolution before 2051?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
34%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is composed of five permanent members: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. These members have the power to veto any substantive (significant actions or decisions not considered merely procedural) UNSC resolution.

Recent discussions at the United Nations have focused on the need for reform of the Security Council, including expanding its size and modifying the veto power. The idea is to make the council more representative and democratic.

However, views diverge over the use of the Council’s veto authority, especially in instances of mass atrocities. Some proposals suggest that a single country should not be able to veto a resolution. However, any reform would require the agreement of the current permanent members, which may be challenging.

According to an analysis by the Council on Foreign Relations, the fact that two of the five permanent members, the UK and France, haven’t vetoed a UNSC resolution since 1989 arguably serves as a key illustration of the need for reform in the United Nations Security Council. The absence of vetoes by the UK and France for over three decades suggests that the current structure and decision-making process of the UNSC may no longer reflect the realities of today’s world. It raises questions about the effectiveness and relevance of the veto power in its current form, and whether it serves as an impediment to the Council’s ability to respond effectively to global crises.

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts19

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34%
Unlikely

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is composed of five permanent members: the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France. These members have the power to veto any substantive (significant actions or decisions not considered...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 19

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