All 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the delegation has two members or more, States are divided into single-member districts. Most states elect their representatives by the plurality method, where voters cast a vote for one candidate and the one with the highest number of votes wins.
The U.S. has a strong two-party system, with the Republicans (GOP) and Democrats taking center stage in the country's political life and other parties having little influence.
Of the past 10 House elections, in 3 of them the party winning the popular vote across all districts did not win the majority of House seats:
| Election | Popular vote won by GOP | Seats won by GOP (out of 435) | |-|-|| | 2022 | 50.6% | 222 | | 2020 | 47.2% | 213 | | 2018 | 44.8% | 199 | | 2016 | 49.1%* | 241* | | 2014 | 51.2% | 247 | | 2012 | 47.7%* | 234* | | 2010 | 51.7% | 242 | | 2008 | 42.6% | 178 | | 2006 | 44.3% | 202 | | 2004 | 49.4%* | 232* |
*Election in which the popular vote winner did not achieve a House majority.
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 51 |
[Wikipedia article]
All 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the...
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