Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?

On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines escalated when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship collided near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations here.

With respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions by launching large-scale military drills around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as "punishment" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, Lai Ching-te, who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.

Since the exercises, China increased its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan warned its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called "Taiwan independence separatists."

In late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet hosted its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included "practicing to sink" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense condemned the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.