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Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
4%
Very unlikely
Yes

Question description #

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), keeping warming to no more than 1.5°C requires global carbon emissions to peak in 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030. (Source: the IPCC's Summary for Policymakers pdf)

According to OWID, the past ten years through 2023 had this history:

| Year | Percentage of Electricity Generated from Renewables | ||-| | 2014 | 22.255533 | | 2015 | 22.991205 | | 2016 | 23.754622 | | 2017 | 24.542074 | | 2018 | 25.178684 | | 2019 | 26.18718 | | 2020 | 28.076723 | | 2021 | 28.140446 | | 2022 | 29.41609 | | 2023 | 30.238085 |

Stanford Professor Tony Seba of RethinkX has forecast even more aggressive growth in renewables through the 2020s, saying:

The disruption of the energy sector during the 2020s will be driven by the convergence of three clean energy technologies: solar photovoltaics, onshore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries (SWB). The costs and capabilities of each of these technologies have been consistently improving for several decades. Since 2010 alone, solar PV capacity costs have fallen over 80%, onshore wind capacity costs have fallen more than 45%, and lithium-ion battery capacity costs have fallen almost 90%. These technologies will continue to traverse their remarkable experience curves such that by 2030 their costs will have decreased a further 70%, 40%, and 80% respectively.

Other forecasters have been decidedly more pessimistic about the world achieving its growth rate targets in renewables by 2030, such as according to Reuters a recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) which calculated a shortfall at the current rate of renewables adoption.

See Also

  • IPCC Sixth Assessment Report
  • AP More and faster: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of global total

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★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts15

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Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?
4%
Very unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), keeping warming to no more than 1.5°C requires global carbon emissions to peak in 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030. (Source: the IPCC's Summary for Policymakers pdf)

According to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 15

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