Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, exceed 200 herds?
Question description
On March 25, 2024, the USDA reported an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA reporting infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.
On April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable.
Indicators
Indicator | Value |
---|---|
Stars | ★★★☆☆ |
Platform | Metaculus |
Number of forecasts | 57 |
Capture
On March 25, 2024, the USDA reported an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA reporting infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15,...
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