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Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
25%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description #

The Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament is the first of four $30,000 quarterly tournaments in a $120,000 series designed to benchmark the state of the art in AI forecasting and compare it to the best human forecasting on real-world questions.

Ten Pro forecasters will forecast on at least 100 of the questions in the Bot tournament.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts63

Capture #

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Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?
25%
Unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

The Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament is the first of four $30,000 quarterly tournaments in a $120,000 series designed to benchmark the state of the art in AI forecasting and compare it to the best human forecasting on real-world questions.

Ten...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 63

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