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Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description #

In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute (RIP) published a report entitled “The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.”. (They also wrote an abridged version for publishing in the Proceedings of AIES.) The Windfall Clause proposal expands on an idea from Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence, which says that the company that develops transformative AI could hugely raise the global standard of living, potentially achieving things like poverty eradication, by distributing a fraction of their profits.

There are some details still to be worked out with the proposal, but expert opinion is that these are unlikely to be blockers: what remains is for the leading AI companies to get on board.


(H/T @AABoyles for writing the “Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?” question, from which this one was adapted.)

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IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts35

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Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute (RIP) published a report entitled “The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.”. (They also wrote an abridged version for publishing in the Proceedings of AIES.) The Windfall...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 35

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