As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.

Joining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.

Potential candidates for UN membership include:

1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.
2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.
3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.
4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.
5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.

Additionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.

Factors to consider when forecasting:

• Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)
• Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts
• Ongoing independence movements
• Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states
• The veto power of permanent Security Council members