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Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
99%
Virtually certain
Yes

Question description #

Previous vice presidential debates have been:

  • October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence
  • October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine
  • October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan
  • October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin
  • October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards
  • October 5, 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman.

Vice presidential debates were not held before 1984, when the first ever VP debate, between George H.W. Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, was held on October 11.

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) originally planned to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially cancelled all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.

When she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris originally agreed to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the official Democratic nominee for president, that agreement no longer holds.

As of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were at an impasse about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts133

Capture #

Resizable preview:
Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?
99%
Virtually certain
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Previous vice presidential debates have been:

  • October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence
  • October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine
  • October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan
  • October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and...
Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 133

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