This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the Forecasting Research Institute titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series page.

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse.