This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the Forecasting Research Institute titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series page.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly sophisticated and integrated into various aspects of society, there are growing concerns about their potential to significantly impact individual freedoms and civil liberties. Of particular concern is the increasing autonomy of these systems. Modern AI technologies are rapidly evolving to make complex decisions with minimal human oversight or intervention. As AI systems become more independent in their decision-making processes, some experts fear that it may become increasingly challenging to ensure that these decisions align with human values, ethical considerations, and legal frameworks designed to protect individual rights.