Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in 2000 and 2004, while in 2016 and 2020 the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.

Linear trend, taking into account all the presidential elections since 2000, suggests that the Republican candidate would be close to the 50% mark in 2024 elections.

Additional consideration is the strength of third party candidates this cycle. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has polled in mid to high single digits in Texas, potentially stripping the Republican candidate of a majority of votes in the state. Ross Perot managed the feat in both 1992 and 1996 elections, though his vote share especially in 1992 was markedly higher.

Receiving under 50% of the vote in Texas – especially if it happens without a sizeable third party candidate – would mark another milestone in the journey of the Lone Star State towards being a battleground for future presidential cycles, even if the Republican candidate ends up winning the state in 2024, as is all but sure.