Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV floated the idea of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin said:

If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.

In June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said:

"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own

"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike."

(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the previous version of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)

In May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin ordered the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.

Tactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia is estimated to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.

Putin recently indicated that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”

Nuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

See Also

• Center for Strategic & International Studies: Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber

• Carnegie Politika: Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation