In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States. CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from "Extremely Low" to "Very High."

As of CDC's most recent qualitative analysis, dated July 8, 2024:

The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.

CDC notes that "In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment."

Here are the specific definitions used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.

Definitions

Likelihood of infection definitions

• Extremely low: An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.

• Very low: A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.

• Low: There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.

• Moderate: Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.

• High: Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.

• Very high: The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.

Impact of infection definitions

• Very low: The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.

• Low: The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.

• Moderate: The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.

• High: The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.

• Very high: The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources.