This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Russia repel Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region?

On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, massively escalating a conflict sparked in 2014 by the Maidan Revolution which overthrew then-President Viktor Yanukovych and led to the War in Donbas between the Ukrainian government and the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, backed by the Russian Federation.

The conflict has been mostly concentrated in Ukraine, with Russian forces occupying some 20% of the country’s landmass, and largely static since the successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022. Following the operational failure of the 2023 Ukrainian summer offensive, Russian forces began to make marginal but steady gains in eastern Ukraine in late 2023 and throughout the first half of 2024, leading many military analysts to believe that the conflict was swinging in Russia’s favor, given its superior numbers and resources as opposed to Ukraine’s manpower and equipment shortages.

This narrative, however, has been, at least momentarily, bucked by Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, Russia, in August 2024. The largest Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory of the war so far, the operation caught the Russian Armed Forces and Border Service of Russia off guard, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to establish a foothold. According to President Zelensky, the incursion has claimed at least 92 settlements and 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast. The parameters of the mission, as expressed by several Ukrainian political figures such as Mykhailo Podolyak and Dmytro Kuleba, is to pressure Russia to enter "fair" peace negotiations.

Since the initial incursion, however, a state of emergency has been declared in three Russian regions (Kursk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and Lipetsk Oblast) and as many as 30,000 Russian troops have been reportedly diverted to Kursk Oblast, outnumbering Ukrainian forces in the region by at least two to one and causing the Ukrainian attack to slow significantly. At the same time, Russian forces have continued to apply pressure on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine, which have been stretched by the re-deployment of assets to the Kursk incursion, and have pushed within kilometers of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub for the Ukrainian effort in the east.

Given that Ukraine’s objective was never to occupy territory in Kursk long-term, these circumstances have caused some to argue that the Ukrainians will either be repulsed by a Russian counter-offensive or forced to make a tactical withdrawal to reinforce the frontline.

Scenarios which could lead to such an outcome include:

• Conventional military offensives leading to the retreat or surrender of Ukrainian forces.

• The use of advanced or strategic weaponry, including nuclear weapons, resulting in the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.

• Coordinated attacks by allied nations (e.g., Belarus) that force Ukrainian forces to reallocate their military presence, resulting in a strategic withdrawal from the Kursk Region.

• Ukrainian forces have voluntarily retreated or withdrawn from the Kursk Region due to significant military pressure, resource constraints, or strategic realignment.