In the early 2020s, electric vehicles (EVs) have seen increases in market share, calling into question what factors may influence future trends in electric vehicle adoption. One possible factor is the effect of electricity prices. Electricity prices may not only influence EV adoption, but also be influenced by EV adoption if it creates a significant increase in electricity demand.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) tracks retail electricity prices in its chart Average retail price of electricity. According to its methodology, the EIA creates these estimates from a monthly survey of electric retailers.

As of September 7, 2024, the community prediction for the retail price of electricity in the US in (2022 dollars) is 10.98 cents per kwh. Since that question deals with 2022 dollars, this question will use depreciated dollars compared to that question, hence the target here is a little more ambitious than the median community prediction. Since the retail price in 2023 is 12.73 cents per kwh, the positive resolution of this question will require a 15.6 percent real decrease in retail electricity prices. However, the real retail price of electricity has remained constant for two decades, since the retail price of electricity in 2001 is 7.29 cents per kwh. The quotient of the 2023 price and 2001 price is 1.72, which corresponds to inflation calculators showing that 1 dollar in 2001 is worth $1.72 in 2023.

According to IRENA, the levelized cost of electricity from photovoltaic utility-scale solar is $0.049 per kwh in 2022 (figure 3.10, pg. 108). Moreover, Lazard reports the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar averages out to $0.061 per kwh in 2023 (pg. 16). This is lower than the retail price of electricity in 2023, and there is potential for further cost reductions in photovoltaics. Solar energy has the greatest potential for dramatic price reductions in the next decade, compared to other sources of energy. However, the Metaculus community (as of September 7, 2024) predicted that solar power would constitute 18.6 percent of electricity in the United States, while in 2023, solar constitutes 3.9 percent of all electricity generation. Since the newly installed solar capacity would only be around for a few years, the capital expenditure on the solar panels would not have a significant amount of time to depreciate, which will limit any reduction in the retail price of electricity from solar power.