[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?

The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast is set to expire on September 30, 2024. If no new agreement is reached by October 1st, the ILA has announced its intent to strike, which could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and global trade. These ports handle approximately 43% of U.S. imports, meaning the impact on industries ranging from retail to manufacturing would be substantial, potentially leading to backlogs that could take weeks to resolve.

Key issues in the negotiations include wage increases and opposition to port automation. The ILA claims that wages have not kept pace with inflation or rising corporate profits, particularly those of ocean carriers. Businesses have already begun taking preemptive measures, such as diverting shipments to the West Coast, though this might only shift the strain elsewhere. A strike could also create widespread container shortages, increase shipping costs, and delay critical imports from Europe, Latin America, and other regions.

The Biden administration could invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to block the strike, but according to Reuters they do not intend to do so.