Will the Gaza War lead to a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has deep historical roots, dating back to when the British ruled the region under the British Mandate for Palestine after World War I. In 1947, the United Nations proposed a two-state solution, aiming to divide the land between Jews and Palestinians. However, this plan was never fully realized. The creation of Israel in 1948 led to a war with neighboring Arab states, after which Israel controlled significantly more territory than the original partition plan had allocated, leaving Palestinians without a recognized state. Hamas, an Islamist militant group that seeks the destruction of Israel, gained control of the Gaza Strip after winning elections in 2006. Supported by Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas has regularly clashed with Israel. The most recent conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, taking hostages and sparking a fierce military response. This renewed violence has intensified calls for a solution to the long-standing conflict. A two-state solution, which envisions independent Israeli and Palestinian states, has long been debated as a potential path to peace. However, the current hostilities raise questions about the feasibility of this outcome. While international pressure may push for a diplomatic resolution, Israel’s inability to swiftly rescue hostages and the high civilian casualty rates in Gaza could erode its global support, further complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace. The war may either reinforce the necessity of a two-state solution or push the conflict into an even more entrenched and violent cycle, with peace appearing more distant than ever.