This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will there be a global recession in 2024?

A global recession refers to a period of economic decline that affects multiple countries simultaneously. In the past, these synchronized downturns have been caused by a particular world event or economic shock transmitted through the global markets.

The Wall Street Crash of 1929, for example, led directly to the worldwide Great Depression of the 1930s. Similarly, and more recently, the bursting of the American housing bubble, coupled with excessive risk-taking by major financial institutions and predatory lending in the form of subprime mortgages, led to the global financial crisis in 2007-2008. The catalyst for a global recession, however, does not necessarily need to be economic in nature. The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, as an illustration, and the measures used to fight it (principally lockdowns) resulted in the COVID-19 recession and a collapse in global economic activity.

Conditions in the last few years since the pandemic have led some to speculate whether a new global recession is on the horizon. It can be argued that the world has been fortunate to avoid another global economic contraction so far, given such concurrent economic shocks as the 2021–2023 inflation surge, the global supply chain crisis, the global energy crisis, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

But with the Ukraine war ongoing, the Middle East at the point of crisis, and a tumultuous election approaching in the United States that may have dramatic effects on U.S. economic and foreign policy, some, such as J.P. Morgan, now believe that the likelihood of an economic downturn has increased. Others, by contrast, like IMF economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and S&P Global, have stated that the global economy has “weathered the storm” and is past the period of greatest jeopardy.

The unfolding debate between the two sides calls into question the future health of the global economy and how it will fare by the end of 2024.