Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
70%
Likely
Yes

Question description

The land speed record (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C ("Special Vehicles") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).

The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called "passes"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.

The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the ThrustSSC, which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier.

This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?

Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts196

Capture

Resizable preview:
70%
Likely

The land speed record (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C ("Special Vehicles") flying start regulations...

Last updated: 2022-08-08
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 196

Embed

<iframe src="https://metaforecast-9n1bj7elb-quantified-uncertainty.vercel.app/questions/embed/metaculus-3117" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />