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Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
80%
Likely
Yes

Question description #

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See this timeline for a sobering look at how close we have come.

Indicators #

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts428

Capture #

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Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?
80%
Likely
Last updated: 2024-10-07

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

Last updated: 2024-10-07
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 428

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