Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
80%
Likely
Yes

Question description

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See this timeline for a sobering look at how close we have come.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts408

Capture

Resizable preview:
80%
Likely

Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.

Since then, the world has nearly gone to...

Last updated: 2024-06-17
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 408

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-3150" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />