Will US consumers be unable to purchase the Cavendish banana at major US grocery chains on December 31, 2029?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
20%
Unlikely
Yes

Question description

In 1965, the Gros Michel Banana was declared "commercially extinct", owing to a world-wide outbreak of Fusarium Wilt (or Panama Disease). Fusarium, a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the Cavendish Banana because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.

Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) was discovered killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection. In 2003, the International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain predicted that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, in August 2019, TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations, prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.

Hope remains that a genetically modified Cavendish can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.

Indicators

IndicatorValue
Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts154

Capture

Resizable preview:
20%
Unlikely

In 1965, the Gros Michel Banana was declared "commercially extinct", owing to a world-wide outbreak of Fusarium Wilt (or Panama Disease). Fusarium, a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater...

Last updated: 2024-04-18
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 154

Embed

<iframe src="https://https://metaforecast.org/questions/embed/metaculus-3386" height="600" width="600" frameborder="0" />