Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
90%
Very likely
Yes

Question description

In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible here, Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined here, and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.

As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.

This question resolves positively if there are at least 200 companies listed on this spreadsheet (or the spreadsheet that is a clear successor to that one) on January 1st 2025. If there are fewer, it resolves negatively.

If the spreadsheet is no longer being maintained, the question resolves ambiguously.

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts212

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90%
Very likely

In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible here, Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined here, and only...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 212

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