Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
2%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.

This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted(^†) for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.

* <small>"military personnel" here includes the Coast Guard.</small>

(^†) <small>"conscription" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.</small>

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Stars
★★★☆☆
PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts179

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2%
Exceptionally unlikely

The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again..

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 179

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