Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?

Metaculus
★★★☆☆
1%
Exceptionally unlikely
Yes

Question description

In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has dimmed in the sky, prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have responded by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,

Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.

This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.

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Stars
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PlatformMetaculus
Number of forecasts108

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1%
Exceptionally unlikely

In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has dimmed in the sky, prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have responded by saying that it is unlikely to explode...

Last updated: 2022-07-04
★★★☆☆
Metaculus
Forecasts: 108

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